NBA Draft Lottery odds 2024: Every team’s chances to win first overall pick


As the NBA sprints toward the last day of the 2023-24 regular season on Sunday, we have a much clearer sense of the playoff picture, the Eastern and Western Conference Play-In Tournament scenarios, and the true contenders to win the NBA Finals

We also have a clearer picture of the other side of the standings — the teams finishing with the worst records in the Association, closing out their seasons with the best odds to win the first overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery on Sunday, May 12.

MORE: Latest NBA mock draft | NBA Finals odds, best bets

No player from the 2024 draft class has the superstar skill set of 2023 No. 1 pick and soon-to-be unanimous Rookie of the Year winner Victor Wembanyama. However, a quick glimpse of Sporting News’ draft expert Kyle Irving’s mock draft assures us that plenty of talent will join the league on June 26 and 27. 

Could Gregg Popovich and the Spurs land a second consecutive No. 1 pick? It’s entirely possible. San Antonio joins the Hornets as the squads just below the Pistons and Wizards atop the lottery odds. Detroit and Washington, teams that have endured brutal stretches this season, each have 14 percent odds to land No. 1.

In each of the past four seasons, a team with a 14 percent chance has won the right to draft first.

The Spurs took Wemby out of France last year, the Magic selected Paolo Banchero out of Duke in 2022, the Pistons drafted Cade Cunningham from Oklahoma State in 2021, and the Timberwolves selected Anthony Edwards out of Georgia in 2020.

MORE: Wemby makes Steph Noh’s All-NBA Teams

The Pelicans are the only team in the modern lottery system to get first overall without having one of the worst three records in the NBA. New Orleans had 6 percent odds back in 2019, and proceeded to pick Duke superstar Zion Williamson without hesitation. 

Here’s what to know about this year’s lottery as teams eagerly wait to see if they’re going to land the No. 1 pick. 


2024 NBA Draft Lottery: Odds to win No. 1 pick

With just one day of NBA regular-season games left, the Wizards, Pistons and Hornets have equal 14 percent odds to win the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery. 

Last year, the Spurs won the NBA Draft Lottery with a 14 percent chance to land the top pick, the fourth consecutive season a team with 14 percent lottery odds picked first.

Let’s look at the full up-to-date odds to win the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft:

Team Odds to win
No. 1 pick
Pistons 14.0%
Wizards 14.0%
Hornets 14.0%
Spurs 12.5%
Trail Blazers 10.5%
Raptors 9.0%
Grizzlies 7.5%
Jazz 6.0%
Nets 4.5%
Hawks 3.0%
Bulls 2.0%
Rockets 1.5%
Kings 1.0%
Warriors 0.5%

The Pistons could land the No. 1 pick for the second time in four years, as they selected Cade Cunningham first overall in the 2021 NBA Draft. 

The Pistons, Spurs, Hornets, and Blazers sit amongst the five worst teams this season, thus they all sit atop the lottery odds for the second consecutive year.

The Rockets, who had a 14 percent chance at landing No. 1 last season, improved substantially between 2023 and 2024. Houston currently sits 12th in the lottery odds, with just a 1.5 percent chance to win the first pick. The Magic and Pacers also turned things around mightily between last year and today. 

MORE: Tracking prospects who have declared for draft

2024 NBA Draft Lottery betting odds: Which team will win the No. 1 pick?

Most years, the betting odds to win the NBA Draft Lottery mirror the actual odds to win the lottery. Makes sense to us. 

Our friends at BetMGM have yet to release their odds to win the No. 1 overall pick — there are a number of NBA betting interests garnering the attention of the public right now, including playoff odds, specific series like Clippers-Mavericks, and the NBA Finals.

However, we will do the honors of projecting what the odds will be for each major contender to win the first overall pick. 

Team Proj. betting odds
for No. 1 pick
Wizards +500
Pistons +500
Spurs +550
Hornets +575
Trail Blazers +700
Raptors +850
Grizzlies +1000
Jazz +1300
Nets +1700
Hawks +2500
Bulls +3300
Rockets +3700
Lakers +6000
Warriors +10000

2024 NBA Draft odds: Who will go No. 1 overall?

After last year’s race to the top doubled as the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, this year is much more wide open. 

Our NBA draft expert Kyle Irving has mocked 7-0 Australian center Alex Sarr as the top pick, and we tend to agree with him as long as the Spurs don’t bag the top pick for the second year in a row. 

An elite rim protector who plays tough on both sides of the floor, Sarr has the size, strength, and skill set to vastly improve any team that finds itself atop the draft.

MORE: Meet Aussie Alex Sarr, NBL star & potential top pick

What time is the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery?

  • Date: Sunday, May 12, 2024
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET

The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery drawing will be conducted on Sunday, May 12 from Chicago. 

What channel is the NBA Draft Lottery on?

The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery can be watched on ESPN, or streamed live on ESPN+ or Sling.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Adblock Detected

Please consider supporting us by disabling your ad blocker