2024 PGA Championship odds, field: Surprising PGA picks from golf model that has nailed 11 majors

The 2024 PGA Championship will be a homecoming for Justin Thomas since the tournament takes place in his hometown of Louisville, Ky. Valhalla Golf Club will host the event, with the first round beginning on Thursday, May 16. Thomas is a two-time PGA champion, but this will be his first pro event at his hometown course. Even with the feel-good story of Thomas’ homecoming, he still sits outside the top 20 golfers with the shortest 2024 PGA Championship odds. He’s a 33-1 longshot, while two-time Masters champion Scottie Scheffler is the 4-1 favorite. Jon Rahm follows at 9-1, with McIlroy at 10-1 and Koepka at 16-1 among the 2024 PGA Championship golfers.

Before locking in any 2024 PGA Championship picks of your own, entering picks on sites like DraftKings or FanDuel, or finalizing PGA Championship props and PGA Championship Pick Six entries, be sure to see the 2024 PGA Championship golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $10,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned nearly $1,000.

The model also predicted Jon Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm’s second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.

In addition, McClure’s best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) winning the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 11 majors entering the weekend and hit the Masters three straight years. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now with the PGA Championship 2024 field taking shape, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 PGA Championship predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2024 PGA Championship: Brooks Koepka, a three-time PGA champion and one of the favorites, stumbles and doesn’t even crack the top 10. Koepka has five major tournament wins on his resume and a reputation for elevating his level of play in big events. However, his last two major starts haven’t gone well as he was 45th at the Masters, which followed a 64th-place finish at last year’s Open Championship. He’s failed to shoot par in each of his last seven rounds at major tournaments.

After notching three tournament wins in 2023, including last year’s PGA Championship, it has been tough sledding for Koepka in 2024. He has no victories, or even top-fives, and across his six starts, he has three times as many finishes outside the top 25 (three) as he has inside the top 10 (one). He played Valhalla at the 2014 PGA Championship and finished in a tie for 15th place, but that placement ranks just eighth out of his 11 career PGA Championship starts.

Another surprise: Will Zalatoris, a 25-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After missing most of last season following back surgery, Zalatoris has rebounded in a big way. His ninth-place finish at the Masters marked his third top-10 over his last five starts of this season. Additionally, it displayed Zalatoris’ resolve in majors, as he has an eye-popping seven top-10s over his last 10 major starts. That includes a runner-up at the 2022 PGA Championship, where he was among the top two of the leaderboard after every round and only lost in a playoff to Justin Thomas.

Zalatoris is one of the premier ball-strikers, both with his driver and with iron play. He ranks in the top 25 of the PGA Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green, driving accuracy percentage, total driving and strokes gained: approach the green. Being such a strong first- and second-shot golfer has allowed him to rank 21st on tour in scoring average (adjusted) despite shaking off rust early in the season. See who else to pick here.

How to make 2024 PGA Championship picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 25-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks here.

Who will win the 2024 PGA Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the PGA Championship 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected PGA Championship leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 11 golf majors, including the last three Masters.

2024 PGA Championship odds, field

Get full 2024 PGA Championship picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Scottie Scheffler 4-1
Jon Rahm 9-1
Rory McIlroy 10-1
Ludvig Aberg 16-1
Brooks Koepka 16-1
Xander Schauffele 18-1
Viktor Hovland 20-1
Patrick Cantlay 20-1
Wyndham Clark 20-1
Cameron Smith 22-1
Joaquin Niemann 22-1
Collin Morikawa 25-1
Sam Burns 25-1
Max Homa 25-1
Matt Fitzpatrick 28-1
Tom Kim 28-1
Jordan Spieth 30-1
Bryson DeChambeau 30-1
Tony Finau 30-1
Dustin Johnson 30-1
Justin Thomas 33-1
Hideki Matsuyama 35-1
Jason Day 35-1
Cameron Young 35-1
Tommy Fleetwood 40-1
Rickie Fowler 45-1
Min Woo Lee 50-1
Sungjae Im 50-1
Shane Lowry 50-1
Tyrrell Hatton 50-1
Brian Harman 55-1
Corey Conners 60-1
Patrick Reed 65-1
Justin Rose 65-1
Russell Henley 65-1
Sahith Theegala 65-1
Keegan Bradley 75-1
Adam Scott 80-1
Talor Gooch 90-1
Gary Woodland 100-1
Kurt Kitayama 100-1
Daniel Berger 100-1
Louis Oosthuizen 125-1
Tiger Woods 125-1
Si Woo Kim 125-1
Keith Mitchell 125-1
Thomas Pieters 125-1
Abraham Ancer 125-1
J.T. Poston 125-1
Sepp Straka 125-1
Mito Pereira 150-1
Harris English 150-1
Phil Mickelson 150-1
Ryan Fox 150-1
Adam Hadwin 150-1
Sergio Garcia 150-1
Seamus Power 175-1
Denny McCarthy 175-1
Robert MacIntyre 175-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 175-1
Davis Riley 175-1
Aaron Wise 175-1
Marc Leishman 175-1
Billy Horschel 200-1
Harold Varner III 200-1
Jason Kokrak 200-1
Mackenzie Hughes 225-1
Francisco Molinari 225-1
Joel Dahmen 250-1

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