Women’s Super League title run-in: Will Chelsea or Manchester City come out on top?

Chelsea bounced back from successive cup exits to keep their Women’s Super League title hopes firmly alive with a 3-0 win over Aston Villa.

Victory at Kingsmeadow meant Emma Hayes’ side leapfrogged Manchester City at the top of the table on goal difference.

Chelsea are seeking a fifth successive league title in boss Hayes’ final season in charge, while City are looking to win the WSL for the first time since 2016.

“I think I’m happy for three points, happy to break a losing streak for us,” Hayes told BBC Sport, with victory coming after defeats by Arsenal in the League Cup and Manchester United in the FA Cup.

“It’s about the last game and being in a position where we’ll compete to win. We’ll be neck and neck all the way.”

Third-placed Arsenal are still just about in contention, but have it all to do, sitting six points behind Chelsea and City. Opta’s ‘supercomputer’ has already ruled out the Gunners, giving them a 0% chance of winning the title.

But how are things shaping up for the remaining games? Who has the tougher run-in? And who does Opta predict will win the title?

Current table

Team Played Points GD Form (past 5 games)
1. Chelsea 18 46 +39 LWWWW
2. Man City 18 46 +37 WWWWW
3. Arsenal 18 40 +24 WWLWW

City overturned an early-season blip to win their past 12 WSL games, including a 1-0 success at Chelsea in February, but Chelsea’s recovery since then to win four in a row has given them the advantage with a slightly better goal difference.

If goal difference is level at the end of the season, the title outcome will be decided on goals scored – and Chelsea currently lead City 50-49 on that metric.

If teams are level on both goal difference and goals scored, the next deciding factor is the number of league wins, followed by head-to-head record against their title rivals. City would edge a head-to-head against Chelsea, having won away and drawn at home.

What are the remaining fixtures?

April West Ham (H) Leicester City (H)
Liverpool (A) Bristol City (A) Everton (A)
May Bristol City (H) Arsenal (H) Man City (A)
Tottenham (A)
Man Utd (A) Aston Villa (A) Brighton (H)

Taylor’s side still have to play third-placed Arsenal at home, while Chelsea face two trips to top-five sides – Liverpool and Manchester United.

What does the Opta ‘supercomputer’ suggest?

Team % chance of winning title Current position & points
1. Chelsea 55.8 1st – 46 points
2. Arsenal 44.1 2nd – 46 points

Opta’s ‘supercomputer’ prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances.

These are simulated thousands of times to create the probabilities.

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